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Rants

Primary results in USA

Friday 8 February 2008 by legendary_totoro

As crictical as I can be of the presidential election system in the USA, I can’t help myself to be stunned by the place it takes in the medias. We all know it’s an important election, not only for the Americans but also for the rest of the world.
Yeah your heard me, the rest of the world will be influenced by the results of the election in November 2008 because the new president will have the opportunity to address several world-changing matters such as :
- Re-enabling USA’s economic growth
- The Irak War
- The Kyoto protocol

And I’ve just quoted a few. Now we’ve grasped the cruciality of the event, let’s focus on the primary results.
I’m taking all my numbers and stats from The New York Times’ Election Guide. If you think that’s not a relevant enough source to you, please point me to one that satisfies you.
Also, in the Democrats camp, the obvious choices are Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton as for the Republicans, Mitt Romney just anounced he retires from the campaign, leaving the Republican camp with 2 leaders : John McCain and Mike Huckabee. But that last one is so far behind John McCain I just decided not to take him into account.

Anyway, just after the "Super Tuesday" (which was Tuesday Feb 5th), in number of delegates won :
- (D) Hilary Clinton : 892
- (D) Barack Obama : 716
- (R) John McCain : 689
Source

Which turns into this when taking into account the number of States won :
- (D) Hilary Clinton : 9
- (D) Barack Obama : 13
- (R) John McCain : 9
Source

At this point, there’s no clear leader among the 3 candidates I’ve selected. In the end, it’s not the number of States you’ve conquered that matters but the number of delegates that would pledge their vote to you. In this regard, Hilary Clinton seems to be the leading figure of the campaign (at the present time).

But here is something that you should read. Among the delegates of the Democrat party, there’s only a minority that already know which candidate they will give their support to. There are roughly 500 delegates out of 800 that are still undecided (whether they’ve been "won" yet or not).

So according to this statistic, we don’t have a clear indicator of who is in the lead. This is why I’ve made the calculations according the presented figures in terms of people voting for a candidate (see below). I, for one, would rather consider the representativeness of a candidate : :
- (D) Hilary Clinton : 28.81%
- (D) Barack Obama : 27.70%
- (R) John McCain : 15.50%
Source

In details, there were roughly 30 Millions people who voted (for both parties), and even if Hilary Clinton seems to have the lead yet again, there isn’t a huge gap between her and Barack Obama...


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